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  • Archive

    Archive for November, 2007

    The “R” Word

    Caroline Baum, Bloombergs Austrian, says that its coming so you better get used to it. Read the article in full here:
    For those putting their faith in markets, one glance at the U.S. Treasury yield curve tells you something is amiss. The yield on every issue, from bill out to bond, is below the Fed’s target [...]

    The Ripple Effects of the Housing Crisis

    The housing collapse reaches far beyond construction workers, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and builders. The decline in home equity extractions will result in a decline in consumption across all spending levels (except the rich, of course). First, people will give up or cut back on modest luxuries, like eating out:
    The slowing economy is giving [...]

    The Vast Empire of Western Union

    Fascinating article in the New York Times about Western Union:
    With five times as many locations worldwide as McDonald’s, Starbucks, Burger King and Wal-Mart combined, Western Union is the lone behemoth among hundreds of money transfer companies. Little noticed by the public and seldom studied by scholars, these businesses form the infrastructure of global migration, [...]

    New Crude Oil Record


    How Goldman Avoided the Mortgage Mess

    The importance of risk managers having a final say in can’t be overstated. From Amarath to Enron, firms that allow traders and managers to bully the people whose job it was to say “no” put themselves at risk of a blowup.  From the IHT:
    Goldman’s secret sauce, say executives, analysts, historians and industry observers, is an [...]

    Inventories Force Home Sellers to Cut Prices

    Sellers anchored on the 2006 price will be waiting a long time for an offer. There are just too many other choices available nationwide. A sobering article from Bloomberg says:
    Selling in Miami? You are up against almost 80,000 listed condos and single-family homes, according to ZipRealty, an online brokerage service. [...]

    Starbucks Traffic Experiences First Ever Declines

    “…and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark - the place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.” - Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

    Starbucks took a 6% hit today bringing its total decline this year to 35%. The sharp decline was due to a declining same stores [...]

    China’s Economy Revised Down

    This is a huge haircut of 40%, first reported in the FT:
    The Asian Development Bank presented official survey results indicating China’s economy is smaller and poorer than established estimates say. The announcement cited the first authoritative measure of China’s size using purchasing power parity methods. The results tell us that when the World Bank announces [...]

    Nokia Makes Losers of TomTom, Garmin in Bidding

    Bloomberg’s analysis is spot on. Over time neither will survive as standalone entities:
    Consumers also will find navigation systems available in more new cars, giving them little reason to pay $250 or more for units from Garmin or TomTom, said consultant Blair Swedeen.
    “They are getting squeezed from both sides,” said Swedeen, a principal at Partenza Consulting [...]

    Porsche the Hedge Fund

    FT reports that Porsche is acting more like a hedge fund than a luxury car manufacturer:
    Porsche on Monday revealed it earned three times as much money from trading derivatives as it did from selling cars, prompting accusations it was acting more like a hedge fund. The German luxury sports carmaker said €3.6bn ($5.2bn) of its [...]